ada baiknya kita juga mengamati...ekonomi AS.. karena terkadang
barometer ekonomi dan krisis dunia...
ada yg bisa memberikan insight dan komentar atas data dibawah ini... dan
bagaimana dampaknya terhadap
ekonomi kita khususnya di sektor ICT.... semoga bermanfaat... kalau
tidak yah di delete saja... gr
tadi diundang oleh direksi pertamina ikut pertemuan GCG... sepertinya
Pertamina ingin menggalakkan GCG...
artinya yah good corporate gov... tidak korupsi... KKN... :-)
memang perjuangan yang tidak mudah... disaat realitas dilapangan seperti
ini...
menarik ketika sessi tanya jawab... banyak yang bukan bertanya soal GCG
nya... tapi complain mengenai keterlambatan
misalnya pembayaran... jalannya dokumen... yang lambat... ini semua
tanda... kata pembicara kedua...
catatan: di Pertamina ada dibuka tim Whistleblower Systems( WBS) artinya
bisa lapor dan dilindungi... kaget juga... karena sepertinya ini tidak
direkomendasi oleh budaya di pembicara ketiga GE... karena nantinya bisa
juga fitnah dst... masuk dalam laporan ke WBS
pembicara kedua... lebih hebat lagi... kepala divisi Gratifikasi... di
KPK... ngak tanggung tanggung... ternyata
KPK ada divisi gratifikasi... dan WBS ini adalah usulan dari KPK...
menarik sih... soal gratifikasi... dibicarakan panjang lebar... misalnya....
jika ada yg memberikan hadiah kepada seorang pejabat misalnya namanya si
mr udin...... misalnya dikatakan ikhlas...dan tidak ada maksud apa apa ?
menurut beliau ... biasa... selalu dikatakan ikhlas... no string
attached ... dst....
mengujinya mudah... apa iya kita ikhlas kalau hadiah tersebut diberikan
kepada si udin tukang bakso... atau si udin dipinggir jalan... kalau
iklas berikan kepada mereka... :-)
kemudian... mengujinya... jika pejabat tersebut sudah pensiun dan tidak
lagi pernah aktif.. apa iya masih iklas... ini test iklasnya KPK... jadi:
kalau pejabat terima parcel... hadiah ... gratifikasi... harus lapor
dalam 30 hari... kalau tidak... bisa kena hukuman hingga tahunan dan
denda ratusan juga loh :-)
pantes... ketua MK... lapor ke KPK segera... :-)
juga termasuk... acara sponsor golf... bahkan berkedok agama...misalnya
membantu biaya perjalanan umroh... atau ke jerusalem... dst.... weleh
weleh... lalu gimana iklan ulang tahun atau honoris causa dikoran koran
ha..ha..ha...
memang harus hati hati ...
pembicara ketiga... menarik cuma keterbatasan waktu, sekilas pembicara
dari GE, divisi GCG dan International/Gov relations ... bagaimana
suksesnya GE... perusahaan AS... meskipun kadnag kehilangan order
karena menerapkan GCG...dan menjadi tidak kompetititf... tapi long
run... tender jangka panjang jumlah yang dimenangkan dengan yang kalah
masih tetap banyak yang menang... dan jangka panjang GE masih tumbuh
positif... menarik...
hati hati... pajak juga sedang intensif sekali... dan juga banyak
laporan model WBS... serta cross check antar pengusaha dan
pedagang..sehingga jika kena satu.. merentet ke yang lain juga
diperiksa... dan ini sudah sering terjadi...kita diminta konfirmasi...
faktur pajak orang lain......
so... semoga sharingnya bemanfaat ...
salam, rr - apw/mastel ukm/apkomindo
----
dari:http://www.cfoinnovation.com/content/us-economy-better-brace-worst?utm_source=lyris&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=cfo_weekly§ion=features
Stronger data (not only for January and February, but upward revisions
to key measures in the second half of 2011) have raised expectations
that the strength of the US economy in late 2011/early 2012 will be
sustained and increased concern that the Fed might be forced to take
action sooner than policymakers have guided.
In particular, upward revisions to wage and salary growth (from 1.5%
annualized to 6.6% in Q3 and from 4.0% to 5.5% in Q4) were ivotal in
altering market participants' thinking on two fronts.
First, in the wake of these revisions, the year-on-year change in wages
and salaries in the United States now looks quite healthy (up 5% in
nominal terms and 2.5% in real terms). Indeed, for the first time
since the recession began, labor income is growing noticeably faster
than spending.
/Click image to enlarge/
/<http://www.cfoinnovation.com/system/files/cfo/Wages___Salaries_vs__consumer_spending.jpg>
/
Second, the upward adjustments in income led to corresponding revisions
in unit labor costs, which are now reported to have risen by more than
3% on a Q4-to-Q4 basis in 2011 (versus just 1.2% previously).
For those counting on slack in labor markets to keep prices in check,
evidence of a rapid acceleration in labor costs (which are now outpacing
the underlying rate of inflation) proved an extremely unsettling
development.
//
/Click image to enlarge/
/<http://www.cfoinnovation.com/system/files/cfo/Labor_costs_vs_inflation.jpg>
/
*Job Growth Is Genuine*
In our view, the most important development in recent months has been
the vigorous strengthening in US labor market conditions (which in turn
is setting the stage for improved consumer confidence, auto sales,
housing activity, etc).
Private payroll growth in the last six months has been the strongest
since 2006. The magnitude of both the pickup in payroll growth and the
drop in the unemployment rate has exceeded even our own relatively
optimistic forecasts.
Skeptics contend that the drop in the jobless rate is, to some extent, a
mirage, owing to a decline in the labor force participation rate (which
now stands at 63.9%, the second-lowest reading since 1984).
However, a significant portion of the decline in the labor force
participation rate reflects long-running demographic changes and secular
shifts within the participation rate of teenagers, not cyclical forces.
The labor force participation rate was declining before the recession
began and will likely continue to move lower in the years to come.
Thus, comparing the current unemployment rate to what it would be if the
labor force participation rate was at its (higher) pre-recession level
is not appropriate. In any case, the labor force has been rising over
the last eight months at only a slightly slower pace than its long-term
trend.
Meanwhile, employment as measured by the household survey has soared by
nearly 2.7 million. This strength, not issues with the labor force, has
propelled the unemployment rate lower.
/Click image to enlarge/
/<http://www.cfoinnovation.com/system/files/cfo/Household_employment.jpg> /
*Where Do We Go From Here? *
But while the recent strengthening in US economic activity is a welcome
development, we again find ourselves hesitant to extrapolate the pace of
improvement too far forward.
Throughout this recovery, views on the economy have swung from extremely
pessimistic to overly optimistic and back again. However, the economy
has never been as strong as the optimists have hoped nor as weak as the
pessimists have feared.
The key has been to fade the extremes.
Once again, market participants have begun to position for an upside
breakout in growth. Similar bets were made in 2010 and 2011 but they
proved wrong.
To be sure, the 2012 momentum looks more likely to be sustained. The
pickup seen this year has been both broader and stronger. In addition,
natural disasters (e.g. the earthquake/tsunami in Japan and the flooding
in Thailand) played a significant role in derailing the economy's upward
momentum last spring and hopefully won't be repeated.
In fact, we expect real GDP to advance at close to its current pace
throughout 2012. However, we do not believe the economy is on the verge
of an upside breakout.
*Downside Risks*
Numerous downside risks remain that are likely to keep US growth
expectations in check.
*//*
*/Higher gas prices/*. Prices at the pump have climbed sharply from
under US$3.40 per gallon in late January to nearly US$3.90 per gallon
currently. Prices have never been this high so early in the year and
some speculate that prices could hit the $5 per gallon mark as the
summer driving season approaches.
To date, the impact of rising gasoline prices has been muted. For some
consumers, the effect has been mitigated by the sharp decline in natural
gas prices which, combined with the mild winter weather, has reduced the
home heating burden. More broadly, the improvement in the economy (and
particularly the labor market) appears to be providing a significant
psychological cushion.
Nonetheless, further gasoline price rises pose a risk. The University of
Michigan consumer sentiment survey noted that US$4 gasoline has lost is
shock value but US$5 per gallon would likely have a widespread and
substantial impact.
*/Diminishing weather boost./* We do not believe the US economy's recent
strength is due solely (or even primarily) to the unusually mild winter
weather but, on the margin, the data have probably benefited. To the
extent that activity (e.g. auto sales, housing starts) has been pulled
forward into the winter months, the statistics this spring could look
somewhat less robust.
*/Crisis in the Eurozone./* Financial conditions in the Eurozone are
less restrictive than at any time since late July (and in the US,
financial conditions recently turned positive), in large part reflecting
the success of the ECB's massive injections of liquidity. But while tail
risks for the global financial system have been reduced, solvency issues
remain.
Moreover, market participants may be underestimating the short-term
economic pain inflicted on the peripheral countries by aggressive fiscal
consolidation programs. Our European colleagues' baseline forecast is
for renewed stress over coming months.
As the March US Federal Open Market Committee statement noted, "Strains
in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose
significant downside risks to the economic outlook."
*/Looming fiscal drag/*. The greatest threat to the medium-term outlook
for US growth remains the changes in fiscal policy slated to take effect
in January 2013. The Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire, along with the
payroll tax holiday and extended unemployment benefits.
In addition, the first tranche of the US$1.2 trillion in automatic
spending cuts (evenly distributed over nine years) mandated by the
Budget Control Act of 2011 are to be instituted.
The impact of these policy changes on growth could be substantial.
Indeed, incorporating this drag into its forecast, the Congressional
Budget Office predicts real GDP growth in 2013 of just 1.1% versus
growth of closer to 3% if the Bush tax cuts were extended and the
spending cuts not enacted.
However, under the latter scenario, the US credit rating would clearly
be at risk unless a credible budget deal that provides equal or greater
long-term deficit reduction is passed instead.
None of these threats are new. They have merely taken a backseat to the
positive data delivered in recent months. Unfortunately, upside economic
surprises appear to have run their course, and this trend may extend as
the weather boost fades.
If the data begin to meet -- rather than beat -- expectations, attention
could quickly return to the larger challenges the US economy faces.
Of particular import will be whether some of the upward acceleration in
payroll growth begins to fade (the sharp downward movement seen in
claims around the turn of the year may be stalling).
Moreover, as has been widely discussed, the slide in the unemployment
rate since mid-2011 has been far larger than would have been expected
given the modest growth in real GDP.
Based on Okun's Law, the empirically observed relationship between
unemployment and losses in a country's production, for every percentage
point that real GDP growth exceeds its long-run trend, the unemployment
rate would be expected to decline by one-half percentage point.
In fact, US real GDP growth was below trend in 2011 and yet the
unemployment rate fell by over three-quarters of a percentage point.
One explanation may be that the overshoot seen during the downturn has
been reversed (i.e. firms fired many more workers than would have been
expected during the recession and are now hiring them back at a
faster-than-normal rate).
In any case, as illustrated in the chart below, the recent slide in the
jobless rate may not be sustained without an acceleration to above-trend
real GDP growth -- a point that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made during
his semi-annual monetary policy testimony.
/Click image to expand/
/<http://www.cfoinnovation.com/system/files/cfo/unemployment_rate.jpg> /
*Fundamental Outlook: No Change *
We are pleased and impressed by the recent improvement in US economic
activity. The expansion is becoming broader and more entrenched with
each passing quarter. The recent pickup in employment growth is
particularly important, providing key support for the consumer and the
housing sector that has, for the most part, been lacking during this
recovery.
However, market participants are once again at risk of extrapolating the
recent pickup in momentum too far forward.
Is the economy growing closer to trend? Yes. Has the fundamental story
changed significantly since the beginning of year? We think not.
The economy is likely to continue to oscillate between periods of
relative strength and weakness (with hopefully higher highs and higher
lows as the expansion matures) until the secular headwinds abate and the
outlook for US fiscal policy is clearer.
The one factor that could change things is the US election. Critical
decisions will need to be made in the coming year with respect to taxes,
government spending, and regulation. Depending on the outcome of the
U.S. presidential elections, we could envision vastly different
outcomes. At this time, it is too early to handicap the odds of specific
scenarios.
*About the Author*
/This article is excerpted from "US Economics Weekly," a report by Royal
Bank of Scotland and affiliated companies that was published on 23 March
2012. It has been re-edited for clarity and conciseness. /
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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